The Dissenter

#1073 David Wolpert: History as a Stochastic Process

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Mar 20, 2025
Guest
David Wolpert
David Wolpert, a Professor at the Santa Fe Institute with a rich background in thermodynamics and machine learning, dives deep into the intriguing concept of viewing history as a stochastic process. He explains how randomness affects historical analysis and introduces methodologies that contrast traditional storytelling. Wolpert discusses the complexities of sociopolitical evolution and challenges faced in predictive modeling, advocating for a more quantitative approach to understanding our past and its implications for the future.
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INSIGHT

Stochastic vs. Deterministic Processes

  • Deterministic processes, like those in physics, have a state that defines the future trajectory.
  • Stochastic processes involve randomness, like predicting stock markets or weather.
INSIGHT

Seshat Dataset & Societal Trends

  • The Seshat dataset reveals surprising trends in societal development across civilizations and time.
  • Societies grow in size, then computational power, then size again, in predictable patterns.
INSIGHT

Societal Growth & Computational Thresholds

  • Societies grow in size, then plateau, increasing computational power until hitting a threshold.
  • They then grow in size again, following predictable patterns across civilizations.
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