The Dissenter
#1073 David Wolpert: History as a Stochastic Process
Mar 20, 2025
David Wolpert, a Professor at the Santa Fe Institute with a rich background in thermodynamics and machine learning, dives deep into the intriguing concept of viewing history as a stochastic process. He explains how randomness affects historical analysis and introduces methodologies that contrast traditional storytelling. Wolpert discusses the complexities of sociopolitical evolution and challenges faced in predictive modeling, advocating for a more quantitative approach to understanding our past and its implications for the future.
34:44
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Quick takeaways
- Dr. David Wolpert explains how stochastic processes incorporate randomness in understanding complex systems, challenging deterministic predictions in history and society.
- The Seshat dataset reveals universal development patterns among societies, illustrating critical thresholds that affect growth and computational capabilities.
Deep dives
Understanding Stochastic Processes
A stochastic process differs from a deterministic process by incorporating randomness into future trajectories. While deterministic processes allow for precise predictions based on current states, stochastic processes account for uncertainties inherent in systems like stock markets or weather patterns. For instance, if quantum effects influence a physical system, its future states cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, thus introducing stochasticity. In exploring the framework of history, it becomes evident that human societal dynamics also exhibit this randomness, highlighting the limitations of deterministic predictions in complex systems.
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