The Rate Guy Fed Meeting Primer
May 5, 2025
This discussion dives into the latest economic indicators, revealing unexpected trends in inflation and GDP. The possibility of a rate cut creates a thrilling 50/50 uncertainty as the Fed convenes. They analyze the peculiar impact of tariffs, noting it's a shock the market hasn't faced before. With insights from experts like Mohammed El-Erian, the hosts unravel the complexities of today's economic landscape. Job growth concerns are examined, alongside casual commentary on how these factors affect personal finances and market behavior.
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Dad’s Bathroom Rule Story
- JP Conklin shared a personal story about managing his sons arguing over a bathroom.
- He used a firm approach to set boundaries and expectations with them.
GDP Distorted by Tariffs
- Q1 GDP was negative partly due to tariff-driven import timing.
- GDP will likely bounce back modestly, reflecting real economic activity more accurately.
Core PCE Inflation Hits Zero
- Core PCE inflation showed zero monthly growth, the first in five years.
- However, tariffs cast uncertainty on the inflation outlook despite the positive data.