Episode 223 — Will the Chinese Defense Surge Continue? Insights for 2025
Feb 15, 2025
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Join J. Michael 'JDAM' Dahm, a former naval intelligence officer now delving into aerospace and China studies, as he explores China's military transformation and strategic ambitions. Discover the implications of new military branches like the Aerospace Force and the surge in nuclear capabilities. Dahm also highlights significant advancements in combat aircraft and the evolving dynamics between China and Russia. Tune in for insights on how these developments might shape U.S. defense strategies in 2025, all wrapped up with some light-hearted zodiac reflections!
China's recent military reorganization emphasizes a focus on modernizing its armed forces and enhancing capabilities across various domains, particularly in aerospace and cyber operations.
The significant escalation of China's nuclear capabilities may lead to a 'launch on warning' posture, impacting regional and global security dynamics by 2030.
Increased military activities around Taiwan, particularly the 'Joint Sword' exercises, signal China's intent to assert dominance and heighten operational readiness in the region.
Deep dives
China's Military Restructuring and Surprises
In April 2024, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) underwent significant reorganization, dissolving the Strategic Support Force and establishing four branches: Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force. This restructuring also introduced four arms focused on various domains, including cyberspace and joint logistics support. An unexpected event was the public launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, the DF-31AG, from Hainan Island, marking the first such launch outside China's borders in over four decades. This test is viewed as a significant escalation, especially amidst ongoing military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, signaling China’s shifting nuclear strategy.
Corruption and Leadership Purges in the PLA
The recent purging of senior PLA officers, which includes significant political figures, highlights the ongoing issues of corruption within the military. This trend reflects a broader strategy to align military leadership more closely with Xi Jinping's central governance and reduce corruption that has historically plagued the PLA, including practices like bribing for promotions. The annual China Military Power Report emphasizes the negative impact of such corruption on the PLA's modernization and efficiency. Removing corrupt officials may bolster PLA professionalism to some extent, aligning its structure and operations with the party's core interests.
China's Air Power and Space Developments
In 2024, significant advancements were noted in China's air power, including the sea trials of the new Fujian aircraft carrier equipped with electromagnetic catapults. Despite facing some space launch setbacks, China initiated two satellite mega-constellation projects to compete with Starlink, aiming for tens of thousands of small satellites in orbit. The introduction of new aircraft, particularly the anticipated J-35 and speculative sixth-generation fighters such as the J-36 and J-50, reflects China's ambitions to modernize its military capabilities further. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the actual technological development and operational effectiveness of these new platforms.
Trends in China's Nuclear Capabilities
The 2024 Military Power Report points to a surge in China’s nuclear capabilities, estimating the PLA may reach about 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, indicating a significant escalation in its military posture. This shift includes moving towards a 'launch on warning' strategy supported by improved satellite and early warning systems, positioning the PLA for faster responses to perceived threats. Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies remain detrimental factors influencing the PLA's modernity and operational effectiveness. As China seeks to bolster its military capabilities, recognizing these trends becomes crucial for assessing future geopolitical dynamics.
Taiwan Dynamics and PLA Operations
The PLA's activities surrounding Taiwan in 2024 showed a marked increase in flight operations and military maneuvers, particularly during high-profile exercises known as 'Joint Sword'. These exercises are often seen as demonstrations of strength in response to Taiwan's political actions, reflecting a strategy to establish military presence and assert power over the region. The synchronization of military operations, both around Taiwan and inland, suggests coordinated training efforts aimed at intensifying operational readiness against potential conflicts. This ongoing military escalation continues to shape the cross-strait relations and broader regional stability in East Asia.
In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney discusses the latest Chinese security developments with Mitchell Institute Senior Fellow Mike Dahm.
Whether discussing the creation of a new service branch focused on space—the PLA’s Aerospace Force; continued development of their nuclear arsenal; or the “Christmas surprise” flight of multiple new combat aircraft—2024 was a busy and consequential one for the Chinese defense establishment. We explore these developments, take a look at what might transpire in 2025, and consider how this should factor into U.S. defense decision making.
Credits:
Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies
Producer: Shane Thin
Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey
Guest: J. Michael "JDAM" Dahm, Senior Resident Fellow for Aerospace and China Studies, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies