The discussion dives into how Turkish exporters are capitalizing on reduced competition after international sanctions on Russia. It reveals how businesses navigate the complex landscape of logistics and payment amidst geopolitical tensions. The podcast examines the switch from using the dollar to the Turkish lira for trade invoicing, highlighting the nuanced market dynamics. Additionally, it explores the risks and reputation challenges faced by firms engaging with Russia, illustrating the intricate balancing act in 'trading around geopolitics'.
Turkish exporters have experienced a 30% increase in exports to Russia, capitalizing on market vacancies left by Western competitors post-sanctions.
The shift to cash-in-advance contracts highlights Turkish firms' cautious approach to managing operational and reputational risks in trading with Russia.
Deep dives
Impact of Sanctions on Trade Dynamics
After the invasion of Ukraine, over 45 countries, including the EU, the US, Canada, and several Asian nations, imposed trade sanctions on Russia, targeting dual-use goods, luxury items, and exports that could bolster Russia's industrial capacity. However, Turkey remained outside this sanctioning bloc, maintaining its traditional balancing role between Russia and the West, which offered it economic opportunities. This divergence led to an increase in Turkish exports to Russia, particularly in sectors where European firms had previously dominated the market. The implications of this situation highlight Turkey's strategic position and its ability to supply markets left vacant by other exporters.
Operational Risks and Market Dynamics
Turkish exporters face a complex decision-making process when considering trade with Russia, weighing the attractiveness of a less competitive market against potential reputational risks. The research revealed a 30% increase in exports from Turkish firms to Russia after the imposition of sanctions, driven by the withdrawal of competitors and heightened demand for specific products. At the same time, concerns about payment risks have led to an increase in cash-in-advance contracts, indicating a cautious approach to securing transactions. This shift towards more secure payment methods underscores a growing awareness of the operational risks involved in trading with Russia.
Geopolitical Implications and Market Relationships
The findings suggest that while the sanctions initially sought to isolate Russia economically, Turkish firms capitalized on the vacuum created by exiting Western companies, demonstrating the resilience of trade in the face of geopolitical tensions. The strong historical ties and proximity between Turkey and Russia facilitated this trade shift, making it easier for Turkish firms to establish new partnerships in a now less competitive market. Despite concerns about reputational damage, especially among firms with significant exposure to Western markets, Turkish exporters have shown adaptability in adjusting their strategies. Ultimately, this situation may challenge the effectiveness of sanctions, revealing the complexities of global trade relationships amid geopolitical friction.
After Russia after invaded Ukraine, 45 countries imposed sanctions. Turkiye was among those that did not. Have Turkiye’s exporters filled the gap created by the reduction in exports from other sources? If so, how do they manage the reputational and operational risks in trading with Russia? Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir and Beata Javorcik have used firm-level data to discover whether Turkiye’s firms have been “Trading around geopolitics”. They tell Tim Phillips why imposing trade sanctions can be like “squeezing a balloon”.
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