
At Any Rate Global Commodities: Metals headed for even greater heights
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Nov 21, 2025 Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, dives into 2026's thrilling metals outlook. He forecasts gold soaring to $5,000/oz, driven by central bank buying and ETF inflows. The discussion also highlights copper’s impending tightness, with prices set to rise towards $12,500/mt due to supply disruptions. Shearer reviews silver and platinum trends, while cautioning about risks affecting gold, including rate sensitivity and demand fluctuations. A wealth of insights for investors and enthusiasts exploring the metal markets!
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Gold's Multi-Year Bullish Trajectory
- Gold retains a structural, multi-year bullish outlook with prices seen heading toward $5,000/oz by 4Q26.
- J.P. Morgan expects average quarterly investor and central bank demand of ~585 tons in 2026, supporting higher prices.
Central Banks Drive Demand, But Needs Fewer Tons
- Central bank buying remains foundational, with J.P. Morgan forecasting ~755 tons of purchases in 2026.
- Elevated purchases are mechanical and may ease as higher prices require fewer tons to reach target gold shares.
Plan For Front-Loaded ETF Inflows
- Expect ETF inflows to remain supportive and be front-loaded in 2026, with J.P. Morgan forecasting ~250 tons.
- Positioning should consider potential Fed cuts and increased investor allocation to gold early in the year.
