Would Brexit voters really accept the return of freedom of movement?
Dec 14, 2024
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Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, and Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, delve into shifting attitudes post-Brexit. They discuss a surprising poll showing over half of Brexit voters might welcome freedom of movement for better access to the EU market. The conversation shifts to public sentiment towards security collaboration, the UK's defense strategy, and how geopolitical shifts might influence UK-EU relations. The dynamic between domestic concerns and international partnership paints a complex picture for future negotiations.
Recent polling shows a majority of Brexit voters are open to freedom of movement for improved access to the EU single market.
The podcast highlights the potential for closer UK-EU relations driven by evolving geopolitical concerns and shared interests in security cooperation.
Deep dives
Changing Attitudes Towards UK-EU Relations
Recent polling highlights a significant shift in attitudes between the UK and the EU, largely influenced by geopolitical events such as Donald Trump's election and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Majorities on both sides express a desire for closer relations, particularly in areas like economics, migration, and security. Notably, even many Leave voters in the UK show openness to arrangements like youth mobility schemes, indicating a willingness to reassess previous 'red lines.' Meanwhile, many European citizens are amenable to granting the UK greater access to the single market if it leads to a strengthened security partnership.
Labour's Approach to Engaging with Europe
The Labour Party appears focused on fostering a friendly image towards European partners while maintaining a cautious and limited substantive agenda. Their recent legislative moves, such as a product regulation and metrology bill, indicate a strategy to align with EU laws without extensive public debate, reflecting a desire to minimize Brexit as a divisive issue. While public opinion shows no appetite for formally rejoining the EU, there is pragmatic support for enhancing economic ties and addressing broader challenges like migration. This suggests a shift towards a more cooperative and less politically fraught relationship with Europe.
The Future of UK-EU Security Collaboration
The discussion underscores a fundamental rethinking of security dynamics in light of changing global priorities and internal political challenges within Europe. There is a recognition that the UK, as a significant defense spender, could play a crucial role in enhancing European security cooperation. However, ongoing political instability in France and Germany might hinder immediate prioritization of UK relations, even as there is a collective interest in addressing security challenges. Ultimately, the evolving geopolitical landscape necessitates a reassessment of how Britain collaborates with European partners, with both sides needing to navigate their respective domestic and international concerns.
New research this week suggested that a majority of Brexit voters would accept the return of freedom of movement in exchange for access to the EU single market. The poll, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), found that 54% of Brexit voters – and 68% of all respondents – would accept this. Facing their own changing domestic concerns, how close can the UK and EU governments really get? Could Defence hold the key for collaboration? And how much is this driven by a more volatile geopolitical landscape ahead of Trump’s return as US president?
James Heale speaks to Anand Menon, director of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe, and Mark Leonard, director at the ECFR.
Produced by Patrick Gibbons.
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