Know More. Risk Better. Trends and Tribulations: An Update on the US Consumer
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Jun 5, 2025 James Goldstein, a Senior Retail Analyst at Credit Sites, and Jim Dunn, a Senior Consumer Analyst, dive into the current state of the US consumer landscape. They analyze the Q1 retail earnings, highlighting the disparity between demand for essentials versus discretionary goods amid economic uncertainty. The discussion also touches on consumer behavior following 'Liberation Day,' revealing resilience in spending, particularly in travel. They further explore the impacts of tariffs and inflation on pricing strategies and uncover potential investment opportunities in a shifting market.
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Q1 Retail Earnings Uncertainty
- Q1 retail earnings showed decent demand but uncertainty prevailed around tariffs and consumer adaptation.\n- Discretionary retail showed more weakness compared to steady non-discretionary demand.
Consumer Demand After Liberation Day
- Immediately after Liberation Day, demand weakened but normalized quickly.\n- Consumers did not pull back dramatically despite recession fears, though big-ticket purchases remained weak.
Consumer Goods vs Cruises Trend
- Consumer staples showed slower growth and increased budget consciousness, especially in snacking.\n- Cruise demand remains strong, with no major changes in bookings or cancellations.