Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview
Apr 26, 2024
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Senior Fixed Income Strategists Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden from UBS Chief Investment Office discuss Q1 GDP print, inflation trends, earnings impact on market, performance of fixed income sectors amid rising treasury yields, preferred stocks performance, and upcoming market events like earnings reports and Fed meeting.
Economic outlook shows signs of stagflation with slower growth rates yet robust consumer spending.
Earnings have met expectations, with strong fundamentals supporting varying asset classes and future estimates aligning with historical averages.
Deep dives
Market Performance Recap and Forecasts
The latest data shows a mixed economic outlook with slower growth rates and persistent inflation. The recent GDP report indicates a slowing economy, raising concerns of stagflation. However, consumer spending remains robust, suggesting a bumpy but not collapsing economy. Inflation data reveals a consistent upward trend, impacting market narratives and treasury rates.
Earnings Trends and Outlook
Earnings have generally met or exceeded expectations, with estimates pointing towards a 7 to 9% growth by the end of the season. Strong fundamentals underpin various asset classes, contributing to market confidence. Future estimates for 2024 earnings align with historical averages, emphasizing the importance of fundamental support in investment decisions.
Fixed Income Sector Performance
Fixed income total returns have been impacted by rising treasury yields, resulting in losses across most sectors for the month. Despite challenges, credit spreads have remained stable, indicating underlying strength in the market. Investment-grade corporates benefit from robust cash flows and attractive yields, while high yield bonds show resilience amidst refinancing strategies.
As we close out another week (and the month of April), Frank and Barry recap fixed income performance, as well as this week’s notable market moving events, notably the Q1 GDP print. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists for the Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman
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