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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

CIO First Take: FOMC rate decision and market response

Jan 31, 2024
UBS CIO experts discuss the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting and market response. Topics include rate cuts, portfolio positioning, fixed income markets response, factors affecting market reaction, and outlook for stocks.
14:59

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The base case scenario for the Fed remains a 100 basis points rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in May, but the Fed wants more confidence in inflation data before proceeding.
  • In response to the Fed meeting outcome, the CIO recommends adding interest rate risk in higher quality areas like agency mortgage-backed securities, CMBS, and investment-grade corporates, with a focus on the 5-year area for yield curve positioning.

Deep dives

Takeaways from the Fed Policy Meeting

The speaker reflects on the recent Fed policy meeting and highlights that the base case remains for the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points this year, with the first cut likely in May. The statement from the meeting removed the tightening bias, opening the door for possible rate cuts. However, the Fed wants to see more confidence in inflation data before moving forward. The Fed is comfortable with strong growth as long as inflation continues to slow. Wage growth deceleration is important, and the Fed wants more inflation data before cutting rates.

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