CIO First Take: FOMC rate decision and market response
Jan 31, 2024
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UBS CIO experts discuss the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting and market response. Topics include rate cuts, portfolio positioning, fixed income markets response, factors affecting market reaction, and outlook for stocks.
The base case scenario for the Fed remains a 100 basis points rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in May, but the Fed wants more confidence in inflation data before proceeding.
In response to the Fed meeting outcome, the CIO recommends adding interest rate risk in higher quality areas like agency mortgage-backed securities, CMBS, and investment-grade corporates, with a focus on the 5-year area for yield curve positioning.
Deep dives
Takeaways from the Fed Policy Meeting
The speaker reflects on the recent Fed policy meeting and highlights that the base case remains for the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points this year, with the first cut likely in May. The statement from the meeting removed the tightening bias, opening the door for possible rate cuts. However, the Fed wants to see more confidence in inflation data before moving forward. The Fed is comfortable with strong growth as long as inflation continues to slow. Wage growth deceleration is important, and the Fed wants more inflation data before cutting rates.
Response of Fixed Income Markets
The podcast discusses the response of fixed income markets to the Fed meeting outcome. Treasury yields were lower, and the likelihood of a rate cut in March increased but later decreased after the Fed statement. The CIO recommends adding interest rate risk, focusing on higher quality areas like agency mortgage-backed securities, CMBS, and investment-grade corporates. The expectation is for carry to be the main driver of total return. In terms of yield curve positioning, a focus on the 5-year area is favored, but a barbell strategy with short-term and 7-10 year maturities can also work well.
Equity Market Reflections
The speaker reflects on the response of equity markets to the Fed meeting and earnings season. Stocks were down before the meeting due to market reaction to tech earnings. The lack of a March rate cut prompted further selling. However, the speaker emphasizes the good inflation progress and the expectation of future rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for stocks. The recommendation is to stay invested, have a full allocation, and consider adding to positions at better entry points. Preferred sectors include tech, energy, consumer staples, and small caps.
Fresh off of the latest FOMC policy meeting and press conference, the UBS Chief Investment Office shares reflections on the outcome, and how markets have been responding. Plus, an outlook for monetary policy is shared, along with considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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