Know Your Risk Podcast Government Shutdown?
8 snips
Sep 26, 2025 The discussion kicks off with the looming possibility of a government shutdown, revealing a staggering 80% probability. Insights into recent strong economic data highlight consumer spending and its role in GDP growth. The impact of immigration and AI investments on labor and economic health is dissected. Additionally, the conversation covers surging oil rig counts and their implications for energy markets, while gold and Tesla's gains capture attention. Chase also previews next week's jobs data, emphasizing its significance amid potential disruptions.
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Shutdown Likely But Contained Risk
- Chase argues a government shutdown is likely but possibly short if small concessions are made.
- A shutdown would mainly disrupt BLS jobs data, making ADP more important next week.
Prioritize ADP If BLS Data Is Delayed
- Expect the ADP print to matter more if a shutdown prevents the BLS report.
- Watch ADP next week because it may be the best real-time view of jobs if the BLS delays publication.
Jobs Expectations Show Softening
- Consensus expects a weak payroll print: ~70k for BLS and ~50k for ADP with unemployment steady at 4.3%.
- Manufacturing payrolls are expected to remain negative, signalling ongoing sector weakness.