Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy
Dec 21, 2024
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Jake Sullivan, the outgoing US National Security Advisor, reflects on his pivotal role in shaping foreign policy during Biden’s administration. He discusses the rapid shifts in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Israel and Iran, and emphasizes the importance of continuity amid presidential transitions. Sullivan addresses the challenges posed by U.S.-China relations and the need for collaboration on global issues like technology and security. He warns that geopolitical vacuums can empower adversaries, urging a unified message in turbulent times.
Jake Sullivan emphasized the need for a unified message to deter adversaries during the turbulent transitional phase of U.S. foreign policy.
The U.S. aims to balance strategic competition with China while maintaining lines of dialogue to prevent escalating tensions into conflict.
Proactive diplomacy is crucial in managing Iran's nuclear ambitions and fostering stability in the Middle East amidst ongoing regional challenges.
Deep dives
The Changing Landscape of U.S. Foreign Policy
Since President Biden's inauguration in 2021, U.S. foreign policy has navigated significant challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions with Russia and China. Notable advancements include uniting NATO against Russia's aggression in Ukraine and leading efforts to restrict China's access to advanced technologies. However, setbacks like the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have complicated this landscape. With a potential transition to a Trump administration looming, the Biden administration's final weeks are focused on cementing its legacies in these complex global dynamics.
Middle East Dynamics and the Syrian Crisis
The current state of the Middle East is marked by rapid changes, particularly with the Israel-Palestine conflict and the aftermath of the Syrian regime's collapse. While there are potential opportunities for stability, the situation remains precarious, especially as terrorist groups may exploit the chaos in Syria. The U.S. aims to manage this turmoil while navigating a leadership transition that leaves some uncertainty. A coordinated approach between outgoing and incoming administrations is crucial to prevent adversaries from capitalizing on this period of transition.
U.S.-China Relations: From Competition to Coexistence
U.S.-China relations have evolved, showcasing an increased competitive dynamic intertwined with necessary dialogue on critical issues. Though conventional wisdom once saw China poised for economic supremacy, recent economic difficulties have shifted analysts' perspectives. Despite China's challenges, U.S. strategy emphasizes the importance of managing this complex relationship through competition while maintaining channels for cooperation. This nuanced approach strives to prevent tensions from escalating into direct conflict while ensuring national security interests are safeguarded.
Engagement with Iran and Security Concerns
Iran's strategic position has weakened significantly, prompting discussions on how the U.S. can manage its adversarial relationship while supporting its allies in the region. The Biden administration has worked to prevent conflict between Iran and Israel through proactive diplomacy, recognizing that Iran's vulnerabilities could lead to dangerous choices. Collaboration with allies, particularly in addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions, remains essential as the U.S. prepares for a transition in leadership. Maintaining a unified stance with allies is vital to addressing these ongoing security concerns.
Challenges Ahead: The Intersection of Technology and National Security
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence poses both opportunities and challenges for U.S. national security, necessitating a careful balance between innovation and regulation. While American tech companies lead in AI, the independent nature of these entities can complicate alignment with national security priorities. Immediate threats like TikTok have raised awareness of potential security risks associated with foreign-owned tech platforms. Moving forward, establishing a robust industrial policy that fosters innovation while safeguarding national interests will be crucial for maintaining leadership in the global tech landscape.
Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration’s most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it’s imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.