Moody's Talks - Inside Economics No Con Job Friday
16 snips
Dec 5, 2025 The hosts explore the surprising absence of a November jobs report but delve into the latest labor market data. They debate the implications of growing affordability concerns and how households are really coping financially. A discussion on the disparities between small and large firm hiring trends emerges, alongside insights into the influence of immigration policies. With student loan pressures rising and consumer sentiment showing extremes, the team questions the Federal Reserve's independence and its impact on interest rates.
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Income Up But Real Spending Soft
- Personal income rose 0.4% in September, but real income growth was only 0.1% after PCE inflation.
- Real consumer spending was essentially flat in September, signaling softer demand than earlier in the year.
Groceries And Imported Goods Lift PCE
- Goods inflation spiked in September, driven by non-durables like groceries and clothing.
- Services inflation cooled slightly while food prices and imported goods pushed headline PCE up.
Labor Market Has Flattened
- Private-sector trackers (ADP, Reveglio) show near-zero net job growth across October–November.
- Averaging those sources suggests BLS payrolls for the period will be roughly flat.
