Know Your Risk Podcast Tobias Carlisle
Oct 6, 2025
Tobias Carlisle, a value investor and founder of Acquirers Funds, shares insights from his book, 'Soldier of Fortune.' He discusses the intersection of Buffett's investment principles and Sun Tzu's strategies for risk management. The conversation highlights the current market dynamics, with a focus on opportunities in mid and small-cap stocks amidst a challenging landscape. Carlisle warns about the speculative nature of AI investments and emphasizes the need for defensive strategies in today's volatile environment.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Ancient Principles Guide Risk Management
- Sun Tzu and Warren Buffett share principles about avoiding ruin and sizing bets proportionately in risky games like investing.
- Carlisle frames Buffett's major deals as applications of ancient risk-taking wisdom that minimize downside while preserving upside.
Buffett's Apple And Other Masterstrokes
- Carlisle highlights Buffett's Apple position as perhaps the greatest trade because it was large and low-risk with huge upside.
- He contrasts that with other Buffett deals like Burlington Northern and the Japanese trading houses to show recurring clever deal structures.
A Two-Speed Market: Mega Caps Versus The Rest
- The market has bifurcated: a tiny group of mega-cap winners versus a broad swath of mid- and small-cap laggards.
- Carlisle sees value in mid and small caps that trade near long-run averages but suffer depressed earnings from higher rates.
