Trumponomics Live from Hong Kong: Why China Can Afford to Wait for a Deal, and the US Can’t
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Jun 11, 2025 
Join Robin Xing, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, Bloomberg's Asia economics reporter, and Hao Hong, Managing Partner at Lotus Asset Management, in an intriguing discussion from Hong Kong. They unpack the complexities of US-China trade negotiations and explore China's strategic patience amidst economic challenges. The panel also discusses shifts in financial landscapes, the impact of currency fluctuations, and historical reflections on the Asian financial crisis, illustrating how past lessons influence today's economic dynamics.
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Rare Earths Dispute Key to Talks
- The core breakdown in US-China talks is about Chinese rare earth export restrictions and licensing delays.
- China’s complex new export control system allows it to slow the process while technically abiding by agreements.
China’s Strategic Leverage in Talks
- China seeks a comprehensive deal covering tariffs, tech curbs, and geopolitics, causing a wide bid-ask gap.
- China holds a strategic advantage in rare earths, controlling key components critical for US tech and defense.
China Can Afford to Wait
- China can delay rare earth export approvals to slow US supply chain access without breaking agreements.
- Chinese consumers support President Xi amid trade tensions, while US consumers are less able to tolerate higher inflation.