More or Less: Behind the Stats Uncertainty, probability and double yoked eggs
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Oct 12, 2024 Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an esteemed Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, discusses the art of conveying uncertainty and probability. He debunks the myth of double-yolked eggs, revealing they aren't as rare as many believe. Sir David shares insights on effective communication during crises, referencing the Bay of Pigs invasion and the lessons from the financial models after 2008. He emphasizes the need for transparency and humility in decision-making, especially in political discourse.
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Double-Yoked Eggs
- David Spiegelhalter discusses the probability of finding double-yoked eggs.
- He debunks a common misconception by revealing how supermarkets sort and package them.
Uncertainty and Ignorance
- Uncertainty encompasses not just the future, but also the present and past.
- Ignorance, or what we don't know, is a key aspect of uncertainty.
Limitations of Models
- Financial models are useful but can be wrong, especially in unstable situations.
- Good modelers use models as guides but acknowledge their limitations.
