Tariffs Gone Wrong? - Trump's Trade War Backfire

May 5, 2025

Oren Cass, Chief economist and founder of American Compass, discusses the complexities of America's trade policy. He critiques the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs, arguing they're counter-productive to reindustrialization efforts. The conversation touches on the evolution of free trade in conservative thought, consumer behavior regarding domestic products, and trade's national security implications. Cass also explores the potential downsides of reshoring manufacturing and the changing dynamics with China, all while addressing listener questions on political accountability and media scrutiny.

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INSIGHT

Tariffs Need Careful Phasing

Oren Cass views tariffs as vital to re-industrializing the U.S. economy and securing national interests.
He criticizes the Trump administration's abrupt tariff implementation for causing unnecessary costs and disruptions.

INSIGHT

China Trade Promise Failed

Cass criticizes the previous free trade belief that opening China's market would lead to liberalization.
He argues China's integration didn't provide promised benefits, leading to economic imbalances hurting the U.S.

INSIGHT

Trade Deficits Trade Assets Not Goods

Trade deficits occur because the U.S. trades goods for foreign assets rather than goods, leading to economic hollowing out.
This results in short-term consumption gains but long-term damage to American industry and prosperity.

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Chuck begins with analysis of the Trump administration's tariff implementation and personnel changes, including Mike Waltz's removal as national security advisor and Marco Rubio's expanding role within the administration.

Then, he’s joined by Oren Cass, a leading conservative economic thinker, on America's trade policy and the challenges of reindustrialization. Cass argues that while tariffs and reindustrialization may be sound concepts, the Trump administration's implementation has been completely counter-productive. They discuss how traditional right-of-center thinking on free trade has evolved, questions whether China's integration into global markets has delivered promised benefits, and explores the regional winners and losers of trade agreements like NAFTA.

Cass tackles questions about America's trade deficit, consumer willingness to pay more for domestic products, and whether reshoring manufacturing is practical for the American economy. The conversation examines the national security implications of trade agreements, the potential for losing allies to China's influence, and what realistic reindustrialization might look like in today's economy.

Finally, Chuck answers listener questions on the executive branch's guardrails, expectations for "Resistance 2.0," potential federal intervention in college sports, and whether media scrutiny of public officials' backgrounds has gone too far.

00:00 Introduction

02:00 If tariffs actually are a good idea, the way they’ve been implemented hasn’t given it a chance to succeed

03:30 The administration is only interested in communicating to their base

07:30 What should we take away from Mike Waltz being removed as national security advisor?

08:55 Marco Rubio is now holding four jobs in the administration

09:45 Rubio has earned Trump’s trust

13:15 Is the new model to move staff to new roles rather than fire them?

15:15 Abigail Spanberger may have had the best 100 days of any Democrat

17:55 Wes Moore announces he won’t run in 2028

20:35 Oren Cass joins the Chuck ToddCast!

22:35 Tools for achieving re-industrialization

23:35 Tariffs and reindustrialization is a good idea, Trump's rollout has been disastrous

25:35 The U.S. needs credible and sustainable trade policy

27:20 Right of center thinking for 40 years was simply "Free trade is good"

29:05 Has free and open trade been a net positive worldwide?

30:35 Does trade policy of the early 20th century make sense in the 21st century

32:20 Bringing China into the world market didn't lead to liberalization

33:50 Will we be forced to cut an unfavorable trade deal with China?

36:35 Wouldn't it make sense that the US had a trade deficit based on our consumption?

38:35 If we aren't selling other countries goods we produce, they buy our assets and debt

40:50 NAFTA produced winners and losers regionally in the United States

41:50 What could we have done differently to minimize the negative impacts of NAFTA?

44:35 Production has shifted from country to country based on lower costs

46:05 Will American consumers actually be willing to pay more for American made products? 48:50 How can we unwind globalization without severely damaging the U.S. economy?

50:50 The Toyota Camry has more American made parts than the Detroit built cars

52:35 Does reshoring low-cost manufacturing make sense for consumers and American businesses?

53:50 Will poor implementation of policy hurt the goal of reshoring manufacturing?

56:35 How do you weigh the benefits of national security provided by trade agreements? 1:01:05 Does America risk losing allies to China's sphere of influence?

1:02:05 Should our allies get a better deal than those that are unaligned or adversarial?

1:04:15 Does more trade equal less war?

1:07:05 What type of reindustrialization is realistic and what isn't?

1:10:05 Lack of competition has led to problems with Boeing

1:12:35 How long will it take to reindustrialize?

1:13:35 Would TPP have furthered the goal of isolating China?

1:16:35 Chuck's thoughts on the interview Oren Cass

1:17:27 Ask Chuck

1:17:35 Were the guardrails on the executive branch always this frail?

1:20:35 What do you expect out of Resistance 2.0?

1:21:30 Will the federal government intervene in college sports?

1:22:50 Does the media go too deep into the background of public officials prior to their public service?

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