Outlook for Fed Easing and Trump-Putin

Aug 14, 2025

Guest

Dean Curnutt

Guest

Tina Fordham

Guest

Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, warns against Fed easing, arguing it could be a grave policy error amid resilient inflation. Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors discusses his 'GOAT Portfolio' concept and a potentially volatile outlook, while emphasizing the significance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Tina Fordham from Fordham Global Foresight dives into geopolitical risks tied to the upcoming Trump-Putin summit, highlighting the potential consequences for global markets and diplomatic relations.

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INSIGHT

Rate Cuts Could Fuel Inflation Not Growth

Jim Bianco argues that cutting rates now will not boost growth but will stoke inflation.
He believes the current fed funds rate near 4.25–4.5% is close to neutral and should be maintained.

INSIGHT

Fewer Jobs Needed With Slower Immigration

Slowing immigration means the U.S. needs far fewer jobs to keep unemployment stable.
Bianco cites ~10,000 monthly jobs as potentially sufficient given near-zero population growth.

INSIGHT

Demographics Will Dent Long‑Run Nominal GDP

Slower population growth will, over time, reduce nominal GDP and pressure earnings growth.
Bianco notes it should also help correct housing shortages by reducing demand for new homes.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 14th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Jim Bianco, founder at Bianco Research, joins for an extended discussion on the Fed and rate cuts, as he calls for the Fed to hold and believes an easing cycle would mark a serious policy error. US short-dated bonds yields are near their lowest level in more than three months, reflecting conviction among traders that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
2) Dean Curnutt, CEO and founder at Macro Risk Advisors, joins to talk about the "GOAT Portfolio" and the volatility outlook as the Fed looks like it could soon ease monetary policy. Henry Allen, macro strategist for Deutsche Bank AG, said that "suddenly a 25 basis point rate cut seems fairly modest and achievable" in contrast to the large moves called for by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump.
3) Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, talks the resilience in equities and the pain trade as we get jobless claims and PPI.
4) Tina Fordham, founder at Fordham Global Foresight, joins for an extended look at geopolitical risks ahead of the Trump-Putin summit and how it will ripple through markets. President Trump warned he would impose "very severe consequences" if Vladimir Putin didn't agree to a ceasefire agreement. Trump said he hoped to use his meeting with Putin to set up a "quick second meeting" with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and that he would "rate" the call with European leaders "a 10." Trump assured leaders that he wouldn't negotiate territories with Putin and would push the Russian leader to meet with Zelenskiy, according to multiple people briefed on the discussions.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on Walmart's newest employee benefit and the Financial Times' sotry on Italy expanding in the pet service industry.

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