The main threat to communism is communism itself as attempts to liberalize the communist monopoly have historically led to demands for alternative parties and the downfall of the regime.
Creating the possibility of political alternatives is crucial in dealing with regimes like China's Communist Party, as suppressing and denying such alternatives allows the regime to retain power.
Engaging in negotiations, while upholding American values and interests, is crucial in shaping the terms of the relationship with China and avoiding catastrophic conflict.
Deep dives
The Paradox of Leninist Regimes and the Threat to Communism
According to historian Stephen Cocken, the main threat to communism is communism itself. The Leninist structure of the Communist Party, which is all-powerful and brittle simultaneously, poses a dilemma for these regimes. While the party's ubiquity allows for control, any political reform or opening up of the party can lead to its unraveling. Examples from history, such as Hungary in 1956 and the Prague Spring in 1968, demonstrate that attempts to liberalize the communist monopoly ultimately resulted in demands for alternative parties and the downfall of the regime. Cocken suggests that Xi Jinping's life project is to prevent a Soviet-style collapse in China and maintain the Communist Party's monopoly, explaining his constant vigilance against any form of political liberalization.
The Cultivation of Political Alternatives as a Deterrent
Cocken argues that one of the critical strategies for regimes like China's Communist Party is to cultivate the appearance of possible political alternatives. While they can be inept and fail in various areas, as long as they suppress and deny any political alternatives, they can retain power. Therefore, deterrence in dealing with such regimes is not only about military or economic capabilities but about creating the possibility of political alternatives. By demonstrating the existence of a different political system, based on rule of law, self-governance, and genuine elections, the regime becomes threatened, as it challenges the communist monopoly. Cocken emphasizes the importance of negotiations and engagement in determining the terms of sharing the world with such regimes.
Reagan's Approach and the Importance of Upward and Downward Negotiations
Cocken highlights President Ronald Reagan's ability to be both a movement conservative, upholding American values, and a deal-making conservative, pursuing negotiations and compromise. He met with both dissidents and leaders like Gorbachev, demonstrating that negotiations and dialogue can coexist with the promotion of freedom and values. Cocken suggests that adopting a similar approach in dealing with China is crucial. Instead of fearing a Cold War, he argues that the alternative is either capitulation or a disastrous hot war. By engaging in negotiations from a position of strength and upholding American values while protecting interests, it is possible to shape the terms of the relationship and avoid catastrophic conflict.
Resurrecting Anti-Capitalist Sentiment in China
The podcast explores how China's ideology, rooted in Marxism-Leninism, can resurrect anti-capitalist sentiments while still maintaining the market economy. It highlights the importance of understanding the historical context of Marxism-Leninism and its influence on China's economic policies. The speaker suggests that although China has experienced significant changes, including the growth of a middle class and a unique financial system, the ideological aspects of Marxism-Leninism, such as anti-imperialism and anti-capitalism, continue to shape China's approach to governance.
Lessons from Stalin and Mao: Succession Politics in Authoritarian Regimes
The podcast discusses Joseph Treedian's work on succession politics in the Soviet Union and China, emphasizing the parallels between these communist regimes. It highlights that there is a lack of legal mechanisms for leadership transition in authoritarian regimes, leading to uncertainty, intrigues, and destabilization. The speaker also praises Treedian's empirical research, comparing the succession dynamics and outcomes in both countries. The podcast concludes by recognizing the importance of understanding the individual-centric nature of authoritarian regimes and the absence of institutionalized succession processes.
Stephen Kotkin is a legendary historian, currently at Hoover, previously at Princeton. Best known for his Stalin biographies, his other works include Uncivil Society, Magnetic Mountain, and Armageddon Averted.
Our discussion on China is far-ranging yet in-depth — we manage to pack in:
The two dominant subjects taught at the CCP’s Central Party School;
Kotkin’s assessment of the main threat to Communism — what “Communism with a human face” means, and why Gorbachev’s reforms ultimately destroyed Communism in the USSR;
Why the CCP fears color revolutions more than, say, NATO expansion — and why Xi snapped on Hong Kong in 2020;
The twin components of Marxism-Leninism: anti-capitalism + anti-imperialism;
And an understanding of Lenin’s “commanding heights,” and what China’s commanding heights are today;
The case for optimism about US-China relations, despite — or because of — the recent ratcheting up of tensions;
Why Kotkin believes a US-China Cold War is both good and necessary;
How the US can get on the diplomatic “front foot”;
Making sense of Reagan’s foreign policy — how he was both a “movement conservative” and a “dealmaking conservative.”
