The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4090: Surviving Downturns, Picking Operators and Buying the Recovery ft. Travis Watts
Nov 15, 2025
Travis Watts, a full-time passive investor and author of Passive Investor Tips, provides insights into the multifamily market cycle and its current recovery phase, paralleling opportunities to 2010. He emphasizes the benefits of consistent investing since 2015 despite market challenges, explaining how a long-term view can still yield solid gains. The conversation covers operator selection, capital management, and the importance of aligning investment strategies with personal risk tolerance. Travis also highlights the promising outlook for the next few years in real estate.
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Market Cycles And Recovery Timing
- Real estate moves in long cycles; the last expansion ran roughly 2012–2022 and the contraction began in late 2022.
- Travis argues we are entering a recovery phase, making now a strong time to average in if you have a long horizon.
Invest Through The Cycle
- Keep a 15–20 year outlook for real estate and invest through cycles rather than trying to time tops and bottoms.
- Reinvest consistently because missing multiple years can leave you behind even if some deals fail.
DCA Example With Compromised Deals
- Travis used a hypothetical $1M invested in 2015 that doubled by 2020 and had ~30% compromised later yet still netted a gain.
- Even losing 30% of deals, consistent investing left him ahead versus staying on the sidelines.