The Best of Hedgeye: Mark Gordon → Unprecedented Opportunity in Oil Markets

Aug 7, 2025

Mark Gordon, CIO of Ascent Oil Fund, brings his expertise on the oil market's pivotal shift from an 'Age of Abundance' to a 'Return to Scarcity.' He discusses the implications of declining production and the end of non-OPEC growth, suggesting a major price regime change is imminent. Gordon emphasizes the potential for bullish sentiment amidst unprecedented negative market feelings. He also delves into consumer preferences for SUVs over EVs and the impact of macroeconomic factors like the U.S. dollar on oil prices, providing actionable insights for navigating this volatile landscape.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Oil Price Driven by Regimes

Oil prices are driven by regimes of scarcity or abundance, not just inventory levels.
Price changes can change reality by affecting supply and demand dynamics, reflecting Soros' reflexivity theory.

INSIGHT

King Hubbard's Accurate Forecast

King Hubbard accurately predicted US peak oil production in 1970 using discovery bell curves.
This method holds the best long-term forecast for conventional production even with shale disrupting assumptions.

INSIGHT

High Prices Deferred Peak Oil

High oil prices in the 1970s suppressed demand, causing production to stay below theoretical max.
This deferred peak oil and invalidated prior peak oil models based on bell curve depletion.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on November 22nd, 2019***

In this special edition of Real Conversations Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sat down with Ascent Oil Fund CIO Mark Gordon to discuss his deep dive on the current oil market set-up.
Gordon's core point is that we are at a major inflection point between the shift from the "Age of Abundance" to a "Return to Scarcity" with important implications for a pricing regime change over the next six months. This regime change will be caused by:

From the demand perspective, a truce in the trade war or a cyclical economic upswing
From the supply perspective, the end of non-OPEC production growth
The large projects sanctioned in the $100 world fully ramped
The structural slowdown in tight oil

Adding to the list of reasons to be bullish on Oil prices is the "unprecedented negative sentiment" that could make the transition from oil abundance to scarcity a "violent shift," Gordon says. "Here we have a Macro overlay reason to be bullish plus an Oil Macro overlay plus the stocks at all-time lows. This is an amazing setup."

Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.

Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:
The Call @ Hedgeye
The Macro Show
Signal Strength Stocks
Top Stock Picks

Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book.

Start generating alpha with our suite of “Sector Pro” investing research products. Dive deep into Retail, Industrials, Technology (and everything in between) with exclusive access to the sharpest analysts and actionable ideas on Wall Street. CLICK HERE to check out out product page.

The Call @ Hedgeye is a live webcast that pulls back the curtain on the decision-making process of a world-class hedge fund. Our team of 40+ equity analysts join Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough weekdays at 7:45am ET to discuss key market developments, trends and our high-conviction long and short investing ideas. You will not get this granular level of insight anywhere else. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.