***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on November 22nd, 2019***
In this special edition of Real Conversations Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sat down with Ascent Oil Fund CIO Mark Gordon to discuss his deep dive on the current oil market set-up.
Gordon's core point is that we are at a major inflection point between the shift from the "Age of Abundance" to a "Return to Scarcity" with important implications for a pricing regime change over the next six months. This regime change will be caused by:
- From the demand perspective, a truce in the trade war or a cyclical economic upswing
- From the supply perspective, the end of non-OPEC production growth
- The large projects sanctioned in the $100 world fully ramped
- The structural slowdown in tight oil
Adding to the list of reasons to be bullish on Oil prices is the "unprecedented negative sentiment" that could make the transition from oil abundance to scarcity a "violent shift," Gordon says. "Here we have a Macro overlay reason to be bullish plus an Oil Macro overlay plus the stocks at all-time lows. This is an amazing setup."
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