UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Through the keyhole'
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Oct 1, 2025 The potential US government shutdown leaves economists without crucial official data, relying heavily on narrow private-sector information. Paul Donovan highlights the limitations of this data, emphasizing its dependency on official statistics for broader economic insights. He also discusses the implications of a blocked Bureau of Labor Statistics nominee and dives into the latest trends in euro-area inflation and Japanese capital spending. Plus, South Korean exports show surprising semiconductor strength, despite an overall year-on-year decline.
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Shutdown Removes Official Economic Data
- A US government shutdown removes a large portion of official economic data production.
- That absence matters for economists and markets who rely on those releases.
Private Data Is A Keyhole View
- Private-sector data gives clear but narrow views, likened to peering through a keyhole.
- That data depends on government releases to model the unseen parts of the economy, reducing accuracy when official data stops.
Private Surveys Fall Short Without Official Stats
- Private surveys and partisan polling become less useful amid structural change and political bias.
- Transactional data (like credit cards) is better, but still leaves large gaps without official statistics.