Shift Key with Robinson Meyer Should Climate Activists Keep Fighting Fossil Fuel Infrastructure?
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Oct 16, 2026 
Peter Erickson, a Stockholm Environment Institute researcher and geology-trained climate policy analyst, examines the real climate stakes of fossil fuel infrastructure. They explore how pipelines reshape global oil markets, carbon lock-in, supply limits, and why restricting production can raise prices and enrich producers. The conversation also tackles permitting reform, clean-energy growth, and the political tradeoffs behind climate activism.
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New Oil Partly Crowds Out Existing Supply
- In Erickson’s simplified model, each new oil barrel produces roughly 0.4 barrels of additional consumption while displacing 0.6 barrels elsewhere.
- As electric vehicles expand and demand falls, supply restrictions may have weaker price and emissions effects.
Carbon Lock-In Is Economic And Political
- Carbon lock-in combines cheap long-lived infrastructure with institutions, workers, trade groups, and political power that preserve fossil-fuel dominance.
- Built facilities can still retire early when newer technologies, regulations, or poor economics make continued operation unattractive.
Supply Cuts Can Complement Demand Cuts
- Coordinating falling fossil-fuel production with falling demand can prevent cheaper oil from encouraging consumption elsewhere.
- Erickson still sees supply and demand policy as potentially complementary rather than mutually exclusive.