OPEC and Peak Oil: Future of Energy in the Middle East
Dec 20, 2023
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The podcast discusses OPEC+ and output cuts, the debate over peak oil demand, and the potential for hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels in the Middle East.
Middle Eastern countries are exploring alternative business models to offset potential losses from transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Renewable energy development in the Middle East remains relatively small, posing challenges to emission reduction efforts.
Deep dives
COP 28 agreement and fossil fuel phase down
The COP 28 concluded with an agreement urging the world to transition away from fossil fuels and energy systems. While the fossil fuel phase down category in the scorecard received a 4 out of 10, it was later raised to 6.5 after the meetings. However, B&EF analysis suggests that the agreement could have been more ambitious as the terms 'phase out' or 'phase down' were omitted, leaving the wording open to interpretation. There was also a last-minute inclusion of a potential role for transition fuels, which could allow countries to lobby for the use of more carbon-efficient technologies. B&EF offers further analysis on the final COP agreements and their impact on the fossil fuel sector.
OPEC's oil production cuts
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, implemented oil production cuts to control prices and balance supply with demand. The decision to cut 1 million barrels per day was aimed at keeping oil prices between $70 and $100 per barrel. Despite accounting for only 1% of the overall market, these cuts have a significant impact on prices. Saudi Aramco, with a production capacity of 12-13.5 million barrels per day, surpasses other major oil companies by a wide margin. While there are disagreements within OPEC, compliance to production quotas is generally high. Future cuts may depend on oil demand forecasts, with the outlook suggesting slower growth in 2024, leading to continued supply adjustments.
Renewable energy and hydrogen in the Middle East
Renewable energy development in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, has fallen short of targets. Egypt and the UAE are notable countries to watch in terms of the energy transition. The UAE takes a holistic approach, including nuclear and renewable energy, while Oman focuses strongly on green hydrogen production. However, overall renewable energy capacity in the region remains relatively small. Desalination, crucial for water supply in water-scarce desert regions, poses a challenge as it requires large amounts of electricity. Increased desalination needs could outpace the deployment of renewable energy, impacting emission reduction efforts.
The final agreement signed at the COP28 climate summit marked a significant step forward, addressing for the first time the need to transition away from fossil fuels. Among its signatories were oil-and gas-rich nations in the Middle East, many of whom currently center their economies around the export of fossil fuels. But what are these countries’ clean energy plans, and do they have alternative business models to offset the potential losses from a greener future?
On today’s show, Dana sits down with Philip Geurts, an analyst from BloombergNEF’s oil team, to talk about the Middle East. Together, they discuss OPEC+ and the significant output cuts from some of its members, the debate over when and if peak oil demand will be reached, and whether hydrogen offers the region a realistic path away from fossil-fuel production.
Complimentary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.