NAB Morning Call No Bull on Beef tariffs
Nov 16, 2025
Taylor Nugent, a Markets researcher at NAB, dives into the recent relaxing of beef tariffs by the Trump administration. While it aims to ease cost-of-living pressures in the US, Taylor warns it may threaten Australia's beef export advantage. They also discuss the long-awaited return of US payroll data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's decisions. Additionally, the duo analyzes uncertainties in the UK budget and slowing momentum in China's economy, signaling key global market trends to watch.
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Trade Policy Shifting From Maximalism
- The US cut reciprocal tariffs on Swiss imports in exchange for investment commitments, signalling a targeted rollback of earlier maximalist trade policy.
- Taylor Nugent says this reflects a shift toward cost-of-living focus and more selective trade measures from the administration.
Tariff Cuts Linked To Cost-Of-Living Push
- The Trump administration exempted some food items from tariffs, citing cost-of-living pressures and alleged domestic price manipulation.
- Taylor Nugent notes this could lead to more stimulatory fiscal talk like tariff dividends and direct payments.
Beef Tariff Change Could Hurt Australian Edge
- Australia’s beef exports to the US rose 26% year-to-Q3 despite US tariffs being in place.
- Taylor Nugent warns removing US tariffs may reduce Australia's relative advantage and invite more competition.