241. Commercial REality Check: What Fed Pivot? & More with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Dan McNamara
Feb 2, 2024
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Two market experts, Danielle DiMartino Booth and Dan McNamara, join the podcast to discuss recent events in the market. Topics covered include layoffs and job numbers, CMBS issuance, increasing recession fears, maturity walls, faltering CRE fundamentals, and where to put capital to work. They also dive into the high vacancy rates in the Texas office sector and opportunities in the debt side of commercial real estate. Tune in for valuable insights.
Fed meeting and regional banking concerns have dampened optimism in the market
White-collar layoffs indicate a recession in the office sector
Lodging sector faces distress due to declining revenue and refinancing risks.
Deep dives
Resilience of markets after the Fed pivot in December and regional banking concerns
After the Fed pivot in December, markets have rallied and seemed to be pricing in a soft landing narrative. However, the recent Fed meeting and news about regional banking concerns have dampened optimism. Investors are realizing that there are fundamental issues that still need to be addressed.
Contradictions by the Fed and implications for the banking system
Jay Powell's contradicting statements at the recent Fed meeting, along with the New York Community Bank Corp's potential issues, have caused concern. Investors were taken aback by Powell's scripted and off-script remarks, which sent markets tumbling. The spotlight on the banking system's soundness has raised alarm, particularly regarding regional banks with high concentrations of commercial real estate loans.
Signs of a white-collar recession and challenges for the office sector
The increase in white-collar layoffs and CEO turnover indicate a white-collar recession. This has added pressure on the office sector, which is already facing challenges from remote work and cost-cutting efforts by companies. Layoff announcements and reduced demand for office space have led to a significant decrease in occupancy rates, affecting the office sector's performance.
Concerns about distress and refinancing in the lodging sector
The lodging sector is facing distress due to decreased revenue per available room (RevPAR), rising expenses, and decreased business and leisure travel. With a record amount of supply in the pipeline, competition from Airbnb, and staffing and cost pressures, the industry is bracing for significant challenges. Additionally, upcoming maturities and declining debt service coverage ratios pose refinancing risks.
Liquidity concerns and the impact on the financial system
There are concerns about liquidity in the financial system, particularly related to the depletion of the reverse repo facility and quantitative tightening. The shock absorber provided by this facility is crucial in absorbing liquidity shocks. Once this facility is depleted, the impact on liquidity and tightening conditions may become more apparent, affecting banks and lending practices.
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by two market experts, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, and Dan McNamara, Founder & CIO of Polpo Capital. After a week full of headlines, we discuss the 'cold water' that seems to have been thrown on the recent resilience and soft-landing narrative. Join us as we talk layoffs and what the jobs numbers really mean, CMBS issuance, increasing recession fears, maturity walls, and faltering CRE fundamentals. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Breaking down the week's news (0:47)
- Inflation numbers and hotels; layoffs and jobs (7:02)
- Office impairment 2.0 (10:07)
- CMBS rally? (18:40)
- Corporate debt maturities (23:00)
- Hotel maturities (29:56)
- Quantitative tightening and liquidity risks (33:35)
- Where to put capital to work? (36:54)
- Dallas office vacancies (37:53)
- "Silver lining" for 2024 (44:53)
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