The Julia La Roche Show

#230 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Labor Market Cracks, Recession Signals, and Why We'll Likely See A March Rate Cut

22 snips
Jan 30, 2025
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist of QI Research, is a prominent expert on monetary policy and author of "Fed Up." In this engaging discussion, she analyzes recent signals pointing to labor market weaknesses that may not be reflected in official data. She warns about deteriorating job security while spotlighting the Fed's shift towards market-focused inflation metrics, hinting at possible rate cuts. DiMartino Booth also explores the evolving role of artificial intelligence in the economy and the rising importance of creative skills in future job markets.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Tariffs and Growth

  • The 2019 FOMC transcripts reveal that tariffs primarily slowed economic growth, not caused inflation.
  • Danielle DiMartino Booth predicted a 2020 recession based on contracting global trade, which was averted by massive stimulus.
INSIGHT

Market-Based Inflation Metrics

  • The Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics, like new rents, suggests a move towards real-time data.
  • This shift could accelerate rate cuts as new rent data shows significantly lower inflation than traditional metrics.
INSIGHT

Powell's Contradictory Signals

  • Fed Chair Powell's press conference contradicted the hawkish FOMC statement, suggesting a potential disconnect.
  • Powell acknowledged labor market weakness and falling rents, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app