Why Do People Disagree About When Powerful AI Will Arrive?

By Sarah Hastings-Woodhouse

Most experts agree that AGI is possible. They also agree that it will have transformative consequences. There is less consensus about what these consequences will be. Some believe AGI will usher in an age of radical abundance. Others believe it will likely lead to human extinction. One thing we can be sure of is that a post-AGI world would look very different to the one we live in today. So, is AGI just around the corner? Or are there still hard problems in front of us that will take decades to crack, despite the speed of recent progress? This is a subject of live debate. Ask various groups when they think AGI will arrive and you’ll get very different answers, ranging from just a couple of years to more than two decades.

Why is this? We’ve tried to pin down some core disagreements. 

Source:

https://bluedot.org/blog/agi-timelines

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