UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation fears without inflation'
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Nov 13, 2025 This discussion dives into the chaos of missing US inflation data due to a government shutdown. It highlights the challenges of accurately measuring consumer prices when data collectors are absent. The host raises concerns about rising income inequality and how it skews perceptions of inflation. Public distrust in inflation statistics is also examined, alongside a provocative look at whether cutting tariffs could actually lower grocery prices. Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's decision making further complicates the economic landscape.
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Inflation Data Missing Due To Shutdown
- The October 2025 US CPI release disappeared because no staff collected price data during the government shutdown.
- Paul Donovan says missing data means the inflation number cannot be impartially calculated.
Fewer Price Collectors, More Estimation
- BLS funding cuts have reduced staff available to measure prices across the US.
- Donovan warns that fewer price collectors mean inflation estimates increasingly rely on interpolation and guesses.
Coverage Cuts And Distrust In CPI
- Some cities have been dropped entirely from CPI measurement due to resource limits.
- Donovan argues this plus income inequality undermines faith that reported averages reflect most people's experience.