Know Your Risk Podcast Kevin Muir
15 snips
May 20, 2025 
Kevin Muir, author of the MacroTourist Newsletter and host of The Market Huddle, shares his sharp macro insights in a lively discussion. He navigates the intricate U.S.-Canada economic relationship and the environmental shifts in the Arctic. Muir highlights the bond market’s current dynamics and the resurgence of gold as a strategic investment amid geopolitical tensions. He also critiques market efficiency and the challenges investors face in today’s volatile economy, emphasizing the importance of clear information in financial conversations.
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Canada's Betrayal by U.S. Policy
- Canadians felt betrayed by sudden threats from Trump, comparing it to being punched by a long-time partner.
- This emotional shock led to economic restructuring to reduce reliance on the U.S.
Risks Brewing in Bond Market
- Bond market faces risk of a 'trust moment' due to rising deficits and fiscal expansion.
- An inverted yield curve and potential Fed rate cuts could paradoxically push long-term bond yields higher.
Hedge Bonds with Short-Term Puts
- Use one-year puts on the 30-year bond to hedge against rising long-term rates.
- Be aware of the 'cheapest to deliver' bond risk causing bond futures to extend duration unexpectedly.