Forward Guidance Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech | Weekly Roundup
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Jan 9, 2026 In this discussion, the hosts explore the booming commodities market, particularly the metals sector, and its ties to geopolitical shifts and defense spending. They highlight the signs of economic re-acceleration, backed by bank lending and GDP indicators. A lively debate emerges on AI CapEx bottlenecks and market rotations impacting small caps and retail. The implications of a Supreme Court tariff ruling are analyzed, alongside predictions for Fed rate cuts and stock-bond correlations. Opportunities in uranium and niche metals are also uncovered.
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Commodities Poised To Outperform Tech
- Commodities and metals stand to benefit from geopolitical tailwinds, AI capex bottlenecks, and an emerging Main Street reacceleration.
- These forces push capital toward resource supply chains and away from overconcentrated mega-cap tech names.
Fed Balance Sheet Is Shortening Duration
- The Fed is actively shortening duration on its balance sheet, steepening the yield curve.
- That steepening favors cyclicals and commodities and pressures long-duration assets like crypto and mega-cap growth.
GDP Spike Influenced By Gold Flows
- A spike in Atlanta Fed GDPNow was driven largely by a narrowed trade deficit and surged net exports.
- Much of that swing reflected non-monetary gold flows, so headline GDP may be overstated temporarily.