In this special episode recorded in Jackson Hole, the hosts cover the Fed's annual symposium and share their thoughts on Powell's speech. They discuss current restrictions on inflation, their podcast show, contrasting interpretations of Powell's speech, the state of the housing market, fragmentation and fracture of the global economy, and the credibility of central banks in reaching a 2% inflation target.
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Quick takeaways
Dr. Kristalina Georgieva emphasizes the urgency of addressing global economic fragmentation and the need for pragmatic collaboration among countries to tackle challenges and uncertainties in a shock-prone world.
Barry Eichengreen advocates for pragmatic management of high public debts, focusing on fiscal transparency and institutional reforms, as governments face limited fiscal room and increased debt ratios.
Deep dives
Fragmentation of the global economy
Dr. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, emphasizes the urgency of addressing the fragmentation in the global economy. She highlights the need for pragmatic collaboration among countries to tackle the challenges and uncertainties that come with a more shock-prone world. Cooperation is essential in areas like climate change, and failure to act will result in a poorer and less secure world. Dr. Georgieva calls for increased resources for the IMF to provide support to vulnerable countries and stresses the importance of maintaining high debt levels for many nations.
Managing high levels of public debt
Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor, suggests that governments will need to manage high levels of public debt in a world with less fiscal room due to increased debt ratios. He advocates for pragmatic management of heavy debts, focusing on fiscal transparency and institutional reforms. While governments like the United States have room to run due to high demand for Treasury bonds, other countries will face greater challenges and will need to adopt prudent fiscal policies.
Debt's impact on inflation and interest rates
According to Barry Eichengreen, fiscal stimuli implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, including increased public debt, have contributed to inflationary pressures. However, the effect of debt on inflation varies among countries, and other factors like supply shocks must also be considered. As for interest rates, Eichengreen suggests that real yields may decline slightly but not return to pre-pandemic levels, as higher debt ratios require higher interest rates. The specific impact will depend on individual countries' fiscal institutions and future fiscal transparency measures.
The path to 2% inflation and global economic challenges
Brad DeLong, a professor and economist, discusses the established credibility of central banks in achieving a 2% inflation target. He mentions that the Federal Reserve would need to bring inflation down to 2% before considering any changes to the target rate, highlighting the importance of credibility. The debate on whether achieving this target will lead to higher interest rates and sustained economic growth continues. Concerns are raised about the challenges of managing heavy debts in a more fragmented world economy, as countries face limitations and uncertainties in fiscal policies.
Bloomberg Surveillance comes to the Odd Lots podcast! Listen for a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Hear more from Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple or Spotify.
Guests in this episode: Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College Tracy Alloway, Co-Host of Odd Lots Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund