Exchanges China's Economy: Reasons for Optimism
83 snips
Nov 5, 2025 Hui Shan, Chief China Economist at Goldman Sachs, shares her insights on China's economic outlook amid U.S.-China trade tensions. She highlights the surprising resilience of Chinese exports and the shifting trade patterns due to rerouting strategies. Shan also discusses the key takeaways from the Trump-Xi summit, potential durability of the trade truce, and China's strategic leverage in discussions over rare earths. Additionally, she revises China's growth forecasts upward and explores the transformative role of AI in bolstering future growth.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Export Resilience Driven By Tech And Rerouting
- Chinese exports have been unusually resilient, with volume growth around 8% after a 13% surge last year.
- Resilience reflects high-tech manufacturing strength and trade rerouting, not immunity to tariffs.
Tariffs Hurt Low‑Margin Goods, Not High‑Tech
- Tariffs hit low-margin, labor-intensive goods hardest, causing large declines in categories like toys and footwear.
- High-tech sectors (ships, semiconductors, autos) grew, offsetting losses and supporting overall export growth.
Rerouting And Diversification Offset Tariff Impact
- Trade rerouting partly offsets bilateral tariffs, with exports shifting via ASEAN to the U.S. in some months.
- Diversification to emerging markets predates recent tariffs and supports sustained export shares.