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Making Sense

A year of divergence: The market and economic outlook for 2025

Dec 19, 2024
Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights on the projected economic landscape for 2025. He discusses the resilience of the global economy despite high interest rates and varying central bank responses. Topics include currency dynamics, particularly the yen's potential appreciation, and the robust outlook for global credit markets. Additionally, he forecasts bullish trends for gold and other metals, contrasting them with a bearish oil price prediction, underscoring the complex interplay of factors like trade policies and U.S. elections.
36:56

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Quick takeaways

  • The divergence in interest rates and inflation across regions will lead to less synchronized business cycles and varying economic challenges.
  • The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen significantly in 2025 due to trade policy changes and potential tariff adjustments influencing currency dynamics.

Deep dives

Global Economic Outlook for 2025

The global economic forecast for 2025 indicates a divergence in interest rates and inflation across different regions, with Western Europe expected to see rates drop below 2% while the U.S. may maintain rates around 4%. This reflects a broader trend where countries will face varying economic conditions, leading to less synchronized business cycles. Despite high interest rates, the global economy is anticipated to adapt well, suggesting a resilience in growth and the persistence of inflation. Policy changes in the U.S., especially regarding trade and fiscal regulations, will play a crucial role in shaping global economic dynamics.

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