Making Sense

A year of divergence: The market and economic outlook for 2025

10 snips
Dec 19, 2024
Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights on the projected economic landscape for 2025. He discusses the resilience of the global economy despite high interest rates and varying central bank responses. Topics include currency dynamics, particularly the yen's potential appreciation, and the robust outlook for global credit markets. Additionally, he forecasts bullish trends for gold and other metals, contrasting them with a bearish oil price prediction, underscoring the complex interplay of factors like trade policies and U.S. elections.
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INSIGHT

Economic Resilience to High Rates

  • The global economy has shown resilience to high interest rates, contrary to initial concerns about vulnerabilities.
  • This resilience suggests that a "high for long" interest rate environment may be sustainable.
INSIGHT

J.P. Morgan vs. Consensus View

  • The consensus view pre-election was for more disinflation and central bank easing than J.P. Morgan anticipated.
  • J.P. Morgan's view differed by expecting "high for long" interest rates and stickier inflation.
INSIGHT

Dispersion and U.S. Exceptionalism

  • Dispersion will be a key theme in global equities in 2025, driven by unsynchronized business cycles and policy changes.
  • U.S. exceptionalism is expected to continue, with the U.S. remaining a growth engine.
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