Unpacking China’s Nuclear Modernization: A Conversation with Hans Kristensen
Jan 31, 2024
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Mr. Hans Kristensen, expert on China's nuclear capabilities, discusses China's expanding nuclear stockpile and its modernization campaign. He addresses the uncertainties surrounding China's nuclear program, its potential escalation scenarios, and the credibility of its 'no first use' policy. He also explores China's interest in tactical nuclear weapons and compares Chinese, Russian, and US planners' objectives. The episode highlights the recent arms control talks between the US and China and the importance of monitoring China's nuclear development.
China is undergoing significant modernization efforts to expand its nuclear capabilities, particularly focusing on land-based missile forces.
China's nuclear posture is influenced by various factors, and its motivations for modernization are complex and not clearly stated.
China's no first use policy regarding nuclear weapons is subject to uncertainties and potential shifts in strategic approach.
Deep dives
China's Nuclear Capabilities Compared to US and Russia
China's nuclear arsenal has historically been smaller and less technologically advanced compared to that of the United States and Russia. However, China is now undergoing significant modernization efforts, particularly focusing on the expansion of its land-based missile force. With an estimated stockpile of approximately 500 nuclear weapons, China's arsenal is still significantly smaller than the US (3,700 warheads) and Russia (4,300 warheads). China's modernization efforts are primarily centered on land-based forces, including the development of long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles and road-mobile systems.
China's Nuclear Modernization Priorities
China is prioritizing the modernization of its land-based forces, particularly focusing on expanding the number of long-range intercontinental ballistic missile launchers, both in silos and road-mobile systems. There is also an emphasis on medium and intermediate-range systems aimed at regional targets. China is gradually building up its ballistic missile submarine force and is placing more attention on developing an active nuclear bomber force. However, the focus remains primarily on land-based ballistic missiles.
China's Nuclear Posture and Uncertainty
China's nuclear posture is influenced by various factors, including its historical nuclear past and current military strategy. The motivations behind China's modernization efforts are complex and not clearly stated by Chinese officials. There is uncertainty regarding China's potential to utilize tactical nuclear weapons, with some speculation about modifying warhead yields and potential scenarios for their use. China's approach to nuclear weapons and its future direction remain opaque.
Comparing China's Nuclear Modernization to the US and Russia
China, the United States, and Russia are all engaged in nuclear modernization efforts. However, the pace and nature of China's modernization differ from the United States and Russia. While China is primarily focused on its land-based forces, the United States and Russia are modernizing across all three legs of the nuclear triad. Russia has been actively modernizing its ICBM force, while the United States is beginning the process of replacing its entire ICBM force. Both countries are also upgrading their ballistic missile submarines and bombers. The emphasis and timing of modernization efforts vary between the three countries.
Implications of China's Nuclear Modernization
China's nuclear modernization, along with the modernization efforts of the United States and Russia, contribute to ongoing global nuclear dynamics and strategic stability. China's approach to nuclear weapons development and potential changes in its posture could impact regional security, deterrence strategies, and arms control discussions. There is ongoing dialogue between China and the United States on arms control and military communication, although substantial progress remains to be seen.
China's Nuclear Modernization and No First Use Policy
China's no first use policy regarding nuclear weapons is an important aspect of its nuclear posture. However, the credibility and interpretation of this policy are subject to various factors and uncertainties. The future development of China's nuclear capabilities, as well as its evolving relationships with Russia and the United States, may influence its adherence to the no first use policy. It is crucial to closely monitor China's thinking on the use of nuclear weapons and potential shifts in its strategic approach.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Hans Kristensen joins us to unravel the complexity of China’s expanding nuclear capabilities. Mr. Kristensen compares the composition of China’s nuclear stockpile to its global counterparts and analyzes China’s ongoing modernization campaign of its nuclear force in detail. Mr. Kristensen addresses the uncertainties surrounding China’s nuclear program and strategy, in particular the credibility of China’s long-held “no first use” policy. He dives into China’s potential escalation scenarios in the region and concludes by pointing out that he believes China could seek a nuclear war-fighting capability.
Mr. Hans M. Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where he provides the public with analysis and background information about the status of nuclear forces and the role of nuclear weapons. Kristensen is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook. A leading expert on global nuclear weapon issues, Kristensen previously had a career spanning Greenpeace International, the Nautilus Institute, and the Natural Resources Defense Council.
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