Decoding Real Estate Market Cycles with Mike Zlotnik

Mike shares his compelling personal journey of growing up in the former Soviet Union and immigrating to the U.S., offering a vital perspective on the dangers of socialism and communism as these terms resurface in modern politics. He also unveils his "three rules" for finding and underwriting great deals in the current volatile market, explaining how he targets positive spreads and deep discounts on construction costs.

🔑 Key Takeaways:

✅ The Three Rules for "Great Deals": Today, Mike focuses on deals that offer:

➜ A 2% positive spread between the cap rate and the financing interest rate.

➜ A 50% or better discount to the reconstruction cost (targeting existing builds).

➜ A 20% to 40% discount off the peak market price.

✅ Socialism vs. Capitalism: Having lived in the former Soviet Union, Mike provides a stark warning against socialism, viewing it as a system that ultimately leads to corruption, empty shelves, and a loss of freedom. He stresses that while concepts to help the needy are valid, the system itself is flawed.

✅ The Fed's Flawed Approach: Mike agrees that the Fed is "always late" and operates with a flawed model, reacting to old data rather than driving decisions with a forward outlook. He suggests their delayed and aggressive rate hikes "shocked the system" and were potentially political.

✅ The Investment Opportunity: The confluence of a complacent stock market (heavy in the MAG 7) and a beaten-up commercial real estate market creates phenomenal risk-adjusted opportunities for buyers who can find motivated sellers and "buy right".

Question for the Audience: Mike describes a real-life $79k/door deal with a 9-cap and 7% financing. What is the single most important action you are taking right now to position yourself to find and close deals with this kind of massive dislocation?

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