EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular) “Experts & markets think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possible” by LintzA
Oct 15, 2025
Explore alarming forecasts about the future of US democracy, with experts estimating a 25% chance it won't exist by 2030. Listen to compelling warnings about authoritarian risks, especially under Trump, and hear thought-provoking quotes from scholars on aggressive political moves. The podcast dives into research on autocratization patterns and the chances of civil resistance. It provokes essential questions about how much concern we should have regarding democratic backsliding and what action might be warranted.
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Significant Forecasted Risk Of Democratic Breakdown
- Forecast markets and experts assign substantial probabilities to major democratic breakdown in the US by 2030.
- Multiple forecasts show nontrivial risks: Metaculus 25%, Manifold up to 72% on related crises, VDEM 61% conditional on Trump's election.
Experts Call Current Backsliding Exceptionally Severe
- Experts describe the current moment as unusually severe compared with other backsliding cases.
- Commentators call Trump's actions aggressively authoritarian and warn of constitutional dismantling and potential violence.
Common Pattern Of Autocratization Identified
- Democratic erosion tends to follow a predictable sequence of attacks on media, civil society, and institutions.
- Media restriction and disinformation-driven polarization are early warning signs of autocratization.
