The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now.
Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself:
- What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and
- At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted?
Forecasts[1]
- The US won’t be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus
- Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold
- If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...]
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Outline:
(00:45) Forecasts
(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators
(03:20) Some relevant research
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First published:
October 8th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
