Seeing green shoots in commercial real estate – Western Asset CIO Michael Buchanan

“We’ve been increasing our exposure to prime office,” says Michael Buchanan, chief investment officer at Western Asset, a fixed income specialist owned by Franklin Templeton, in the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee.

New York office property, especially the higher end, is doing very well, Buchanan observes. Also attractive are hotels, lodging, offices, multi-family accommodation and warehouses.

Buchanan predicts a record year for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). “That’s really where our dollars that we have to allocate are going right now. And we probably have one of our highest exposures that we’ve had to CMBS in quite a long time.”

On the macro front, Buchanan’s base case is for a temporary pickup in inflation due to tariffs, which will then revert to trending toward – though perhaps not hitting – the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. The question is really about who will pay for tariffs – and it’s not clear exactly how that will play out.

“Watching margins will give us a really good indication if the importers are paying for those tariffs,” Buchanan notes.

Western Asset, which has nearly USD 200bn in assets under management, has been trimming their exposure to investment-grade and high-yield credit, due to valuation concerns. There’s still the likelihood of seeing some elevated volatility that will result in some spreads pushing wider. When that happens, it will give Western Asset a better entry point for adding some of that exposure back, Buchanan says.