At Any Rate Asia Cross Asset Podcast: From Abenomics to ‘Sanae-nomics’ - What to expect for Japan policies, markets and the Yen
Oct 28, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Ayako Fujita, Head of Japan Economics at JPMorgan, analyzes the shift from Abenomics to Sanae-nomics under new PM Takaichi. Rie Nishihara, specializing in equity strategy, shares insights on how fiscal policies may bolster Japanese stocks, particularly in sectors like defense and AI. Junya Tanase, an FX expert, discusses the possible implications of BOJ policy changes on the yen, emphasizing market expectations around interest rate hikes and their potential impact on dollar/yen dynamics. The conversation uncovers the nuanced interplay of Japan's macro landscape.
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Fiscal Reorientation, Not Abenomics
- Ayako Fujita argues Takaichi's fiscal stance is more reorientation than net expansion, not a repeat of Abenomics.
- Markets' fears of aggressive fiscal loosening appear excessive given planned subsidy cuts and targeted measures.
Consumption-Focused Fiscal Push
- Rie Nishihara sees Sanae-nomics focusing fiscal support on mid/low-income households to boost consumption.
- Strong approval ratings create upside risk to equities if consumption recovers materially.
Prepare For A BOJ Hike Test
- Ayako Fujita advises markets should not assume politics will block BOJ normalization and sees October as a live test.
- If BOJ skips October, expect a high chance of a December rate step-up.