Ukraine has shown tactical ingenuity on the battlefield but struggles with troop replenishment and equipment amidst sustained Russian pressure.
The potential decline in U.S. military support compels Ukraine and its allies to seek European backing to navigate ongoing challenges.
Deep dives
Ukrainian Resistance and Russian Attrition
Ukrainians have effectively devised tactical strategies to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces, particularly in their defensive actions across a 15 to 20-kilometer front. Despite these successes, the operational landscape remains challenging for Ukraine as they face difficulties replenishing their troops and equipment. The Russian military, although struggling in ground offensives, is managing to replace its losses sustainably, leading to a situation where the Russians can continue their campaign with relative momentum. If Ukraine can endure the current attrition rates and avoid succumbing to operational pressure, they may shift strategic leverage back in their favor.
The Shifting Tactical Battlefield
The battlefield has undergone significant changes in warfare tactics, with both sides innovating through cycles of adaptation and technology. Early phases saw traditional, concentrated warfare tactics, but by 2024, the battlefield has been characterized by the widespread use of drones and shifting force densities, reducing the effectiveness of large-scale combined arms operations. Despite both sides employing advanced techniques, the toll on personnel has predominantly affected Russian forces more severely. This has led to a stalemate, where neither side can effectively gain the upper hand or execute large-scale offensives.
Implications of U.S. Support Withdrawal
Recent U.S. policy has prompted concerns regarding a potential decrease in military support for Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable as Russian aggressions persist. This uncertainty has forced both Ukraine and its allies to strategize alternative support frameworks, including reliance on European backing amidst dwindling American assistance. The lack of consistent U.S. engagement undermines the confidence of Ukrainian forces, while also emboldening Russia, which could exploit this window to further solidify its position strategically. Both logistical capabilities and battlefield morale are at threat as Ukraine navigates these changes amid ongoing conflict.
The Role of European Aid and Defense Production
European nations have demonstrated a commitment to bolster Ukraine's defense, recognizing the conflict as critical for regional security. However, budgetary constraints and delayed investment in defense manufacturing pose significant challenges in translating political will into necessary military equipment. Countries are reallocating funds from different sectors, often sacrificing international aid budgets to meet defense spending needs, while European military production capabilities are largely fragmented. Moreover, the dependence on U.S. technology for specific systems, such as air defense, highlights the complexities and potential gaps in Europe's ability to sustain Ukraine independently in a protracted conflict.
Donald Trump famously promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the White House. But he is just over 100 days into his presidency, and the war is certainly not over.
With Kyiv opposed to territorial concessions, and with Russia’s military campaign showing no signs of slowing down, the Trump administration has threatened to walk away from the conflict if both sides don’t agree to a cease-fire and a path to peace—leaving Ukraine and its European partners planning for a future in which Russian aggression continues, but U.S. support does not.
In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London, argues that Europe can, in fact, replace the United States as Ukraine’s primary backer.
Senior Editor Hugh Eakin spoke with Watling on April 28 about the latest developments on the battlefield—and what the coming months will demand of Ukraine and its partners in order to avoid a catastrophic defeat.
