Founder's Journal

Mental Models #4: Second Order Thinking - Considering The Unexpected

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Nov 17, 2021
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INSIGHT

Second-Order Thinking

  • Great employees and founders possess a key mental model: second-order thinking.
  • This involves considering the unintended consequences of actions, going beyond the obvious.
ADVICE

Look Beyond the Obvious

  • Go beyond simple analyses like "good company, buy stock."
  • Consider how others perceive the company and if the upside is already priced in.
ADVICE

Key Questions for Second-Order Thinking

  • Ask yourself specific questions when making decisions.
  • Consider the range of outcomes, probabilities, consensus views, and long-term consequences.
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