"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover image

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Why China is Primed for Economic Carnage Worse than the US Financial Crisis of 2008

Aug 29, 2023
Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the factors brewing up a major crisis for China’s economy, impact on US, falling resource prices affect inflation, China’s recession, paradox of thrift, options for allaying unrest, China owning a Sri Lankan city, and comparisons to past economic crises.
55:01

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • China's real estate market is likely to collapse, causing significant economic carnage with implications for the global economy.
  • The US is expected to benefit from China's economic slowdown through potential interest rate cuts, cheaper mortgages, and increased lending to the real economy.

Deep dives

China's real estate bubble poses a significant threat to its economy

China's real estate market, which makes up about 30% of its economy, is likely to collapse, causing significant economic carnage. The Chinese banking system, largely state-controlled and heavily opaque, faces challenges in dealing with the impending crisis. The government will have to determine who takes losses and defaults on loans, leading to political and economic tensions. The aftermath of the real estate crash is predicted to result in a prolonged period of economic slowdown in China, with growth rates predicted to drop from 6% to 3%. This will have significant implications not just for China, but for the global economy as well.

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