Join experts Piotr Buras, a key figure in EU politics, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, focused on security policies, and Joanna Bekker from Polityka Insight as they dissect Poland's new EU Council presidency. They discuss the country’s pivotal role amid the Ukraine war and its complex security landscape. Hear insights on the potential impact of Poland's upcoming election on its leadership ambitions, the rise of far-right ideologies, and how the Weimar group's efforts could promote European unity. It's a thought-provoking discussion on emerging European dynamics!
Poland's EU presidency signifies a pivotal opportunity to enhance European security amid the ongoing challenges posed by the war in Ukraine.
The intersection of Poland's domestic electoral dynamics and its EU leadership role complicates its approach to contentious topics like migration and budgetary reforms.
Deep dives
Poland's Strategic Role in the EU
Poland assumes the presidency of the EU Council at a pivotal time marked by significant geopolitical shifts, particularly with Donald Trump taking office in the United States. This moment presents both opportunities and challenges for Poland, as it navigates a complex interplay of domestic politics and European responsibilities. Notably, Poland's position within the EU is reportedly stronger than ever, bolstered by military investments and a rich history of EU integration. However, there is a growing disconnect among the Polish population regarding the benefits of EU membership, raising questions about Poland's role and influence within the European framework.
Security as a Central Theme
Security emerges as a paramount concern during Poland’s presidency, encompassing various dimensions such as internal, external, and economic security, among others. The ongoing war in Ukraine amplifies the urgency to address how Europe can maintain its defense posture in light of diminishing American involvement. Poland faces the dual challenge of fostering greater European cooperation on defense while preserving its strong transatlantic ties with the United States. This balancing act includes ongoing discussions around security guarantees for Ukraine and the need to stabilize the front lines before contemplating any troop deployments.
Political Dynamics and Electoral Implications
The Polish presidency coincides with a critical electoral period characterized by deep political polarization, significantly impacting both domestic and European agendas. Security is positioned as a politically safe theme, resonating with the electorate's desire for economic and physical security linked to the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the upcoming presidential elections influence Poland's willingness to engage on more contentious topics, such as migration and budgetary reforms. As the political landscape evolves, key candidates like Rafał Trzaskowski aim to leverage the presidency to assert their leadership and position themselves during the campaign, making the intersection of EU dynamics and domestic politics a focal point of observation.
On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker, deputy managing director at leading Polish think-tank Polityka Insight, Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, to discuss Poland’s presidency of the EU Council. What does its motto of “security” mean for Europe in practice? Will the upcoming Polish presidential election impact its direction? And, with France and Germany missing in action, can Poland seize the moment to assume greater leadership in Europe?