What Next What Next: TBD | Tech, power, and the future - Betting on Venezuela
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Jan 9, 2026 In this discussion, Alex Kirshner, a contributing writer at Slate, delves into the intriguing world of prediction markets. He shares a captivating story about an anonymous individual who made a staggering $400,000 by betting on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The conversation touches on the legal gray areas surrounding these markets, the challenges of insider trading regulations, and how market behaviors can mislead public perception. Kirshner also discusses why lawmakers often overlook these platforms and the need for regulatory improvements.
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Huge Payoffs From Timely Political Bets
- Anonymous traders used Polymarket to turn modest stakes into roughly $400,000 by betting on Nicolás Maduro's ouster.
- That windfall highlights how prediction markets can amplify well-timed bets into huge payouts.
Regulation Hasn't Kept Pace With Growth
- The CFTC nominally oversees prediction markets but has largely avoided heavy enforcement.
- Rapid industry growth outpaced regulatory scrutiny, leaving a Wild West environment for political betting.
Suspicious Wins Around Corporate Events
- Observers spotted accounts that repeatedly profited on markets tied to private corporate decisions like Google product releases.
- Those trading patterns suggest some users may be leveraging inside information or extraordinary luck.