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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Jim Grant: A Multi-Decade Bond Bear Market Lies Ahead
Feb 16, 2025
Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and a leading authority on interest rates, joins Mike Preston and John Lodera from New Harbor Financial. They discuss the end of a four-decade bond bull market amid persistent inflation and disruptive U.S. policies. Grant emphasizes that higher interest rates are likely here to stay, while exploring the risks tied to U.S. public finances and auction failures. The trio also examines the appeal of gold versus bonds and how to navigate the evolving investment landscape during uncertain economic times.
01:27:07
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Quick takeaways
- The transition from a 40-year bond bull market to a prolonged bond bear market suggests investors must adjust expectations for rising rates and changing strategies.
- Persistent inflation remains a key concern, with discrepancies in CPI evaluations urging investors to prepare for an extended period of elevated interest rates.
Deep dives
End of a Bond Bull Market
The discussion centers around the significant transition that occurred around 2020 and 2021, marking the end of a 40-year bond bull market and the potential onset of a bond bear market. This shift suggests that the phase of declining interest rates and increasing bond prices may be replaced by a prolonged period of rising rates. Historical trends indicate that interest rates have fluctuated in generational phases, and the transition could last not just for years, but potentially decades. Experts speculate that the landscape has changed dramatically, impacting investors' expectations and strategies in bond markets.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode