The gas turbine crunch

47 snips

Jun 5, 2025

In this engaging discussion, Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, dives into the current gas turbine market. He highlights the staggering lead times now stretching to four years, driven by rising demand and supply chain challenges. Anthony elaborates on the cyclical nature of the industry and why companies are approaching this peak with 'guarded optimism.' He also explores the impact of renewable energy on turbine demand and the exciting potential for hydrogen technology in the future.

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INSIGHT

Market Evolution and OEM Caution

The gas turbine market has evolved from boom-bust cycles driven by artificial demand to a current peak driven by real market forces.
OEMs are now more cautiously optimistic about capacity expansion, balancing past overextensions with strong current demand.

INSIGHT

Complex Supply Chain Dynamics

Gas turbine supply chains span raw materials to final assembly and are shared with aerospace and oil and gas sectors.
Demand from these multiple industries competes for limited resources, affecting lead times and prices.

INSIGHT

Lead Times Near Peak Length

Gas turbine lead times currently stretch from 36 to 48 months, sometimes up to 60 months.
OEMs are actively working to shorten lead times to avoid customer fatigue and cancellations.

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Demand for turbines is growing fast, but so are lead times — causing serious headaches for developers. In Texas, one of six projects that pulled proposals from consideration for a valuable financing program cited “equipment procurement constraints” as the reasons for its withdrawal.

Lead times are stretching to four years and sometimes more. Costs are climbing. So what’s behind the bottleneck?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, a consulting firm focused on the turbine market. Shayle and Anthony cover topics like:

Why previous boom-bust cycles in turbine manufacturing have left the industry skittish — and why Anthony says leaders are approaching this new peak with “guarded optimism”
The competing demands on the turbine supply chain, including from power, oil and gas, and aerospace industries
How lead times have ballooned to four years and, in some cases, even longer
Factors affecting the market beyond load growth, like renewables, storage, affordable gas, and coal retirements
How investment in tech innovation has raised turbine efficiency
How the industry is preparing for hydrogen — if hydrogen scales up

Resources:

Latitude Media: Engie’s pulled project highlights the worsening economics of gas

Latitude Media: High costs, delays prompt withdrawal of five more Texas gas plants

Power Magazine: Gas Power's Boom Sparks a Turbine Supply Crunch

Marketplace: Will we have enough natural gas turbines to power AI data centers?

CTVC: 🌎 Gas turbine gridlock #236

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor.

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