#296 David Woo on the Macro Trade Everyone's Missing: What the US-China Trade War Is Really About

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Oct 18, 2025

David Woo, an economist and CEO of David Woo Unbound, dives into the implications of the US-China trade war and the looming threat of stagflation. He highlights how tariffs are finally impacting consumer behavior, resulting in weaker holiday shopping. Woo argues that China is outpacing the US in the tech race, bolstered by automation and AI. He declares the current situation a critical macro trade, warning investors about an AI bubble and the US's market miscalculations. The conversation closes with Woo's candid insights on geo-political risks and market positioning.

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INSIGHT

Tariff Pain Is Lagging Not Gone

Tariffs' negative effects have been delayed, not avoided, and are now starting to show in slowing growth.
David Woo expects stagflation as tariff pass-through and weakening demand collide.

INSIGHT

Holiday Spending Was Largely Front-Loaded

Strong recent consumer spending was driven by preemptive buying ahead of expected price rises.
Woo warns holiday retail and hiring signals show that demand will weaken sharply soon.

INSIGHT

Tariffs Aren't Reviving U.S. Manufacturing

Import-competing U.S. industries aren't benefiting from tariffs; manufacturing job losses continue.
That failure implies tariffs mainly transfer costs to consumers without reviving domestic production.

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