Yes, Agile Teams Can Create Accurate Plans - Mike Cohn
The term release plan made a lot more sense when Scrum first began in the 1990s. At that time, most teams would run a series of sprints and then release a product.
Today, most teams release more often than every few sprints. Some release every sprint and others release multiple times per sprint or even many times per day.
Release plan might be an outdated term, but it’s still essential for many teams to be able to accurately predict what will be delivered three, six, or perhaps more months into the future.
So whether you call it quarterly planning, release planning, PI planning, or milestone planning, you’ll be much more successful if you, and your leadership team, understand that accurate long-range plans typically lack the level of precision possible in short-term plans.
Plans Can Be Accurate without Being Precise
To put that another way: to ensure accuracy, the longer the planning period the less precise your prediction will be.
If I ask your team in January when you can finish a project, you could likely tell me, “by the end of Q3.” By June, you might be able to update your estimate to “sometime in October.” By early September, you will likely feel confident enough to tell me “the week of October 22” or perhaps, “We’ll definitely have the first ten backlog items done by October 18, but I’m not sure about the next five yet.”
All of those answers are equally accurate. But the level of precision varies depending on how far out in time I’m asking you to estimate.
So when you are communicating your quarterly plans, I recommend communicating your plans as a range, either of time or of scope (or potentially both). By the end of the quarter we’ll give you between 180 and 220 story points. To deliver the 300 points you’ve asked for will take between six and eight sprints.
Being accurate by giving up some precision will increase the trust other people have in your team and will help you succeed with agile.
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