Alfalfa Podcast 160. Recession Island + History Is Overrated
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Sep 29, 2023 The podcast covers topics such as a trip to Turkey, where to invest during a global crisis, analyzing a real estate deal, the value of history, and prioritizing lifestyle over work. They also discuss the correlation between S&P 500 prices and bond yields, AI in real estate investment, and a heartwarming love story found online. The hosts share their experiences at a Korean spa and a memorable feast of goat.
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Turkey: Hammam, Balloons And Tourist Lines
- Eric describes a forceful Korean hammam massage and a hot-air balloon sunrise over Cappadocia.
- He contrasts tourist lines at ancient sites with personal moments like beach time in Antalya and relaxed sightseeing.
Higher For Longer Drives Multiple Compression
- Rising Treasury yields and heavy bond issuance shift markets from a soft-landing to higher-for-longer scenario.
- That move compresses stock multiples and can trigger an S&P pullback before earnings decline.
Watch Sequencing, Reposition Before Earnings Drop
- Prepare for sequencing: rising yields first compress multiples, then analysts cut earnings, then profits fall and jobs weaken.
- Use that signal window to reposition portfolios before a deeper recession risk materializes.